The Hope for Banner 17: Gauging the Celtics Chances in 2008

This time last year, the Boston Celtics were coming off the worst losing streak in franchise history. For 18 consecutive games, as Paul Pierce sat on the bench, injured and disgruntled, a hodgepodge of could-bes, might-bes and never-will-bes had found new heights for futility. Doc Rivers and Danny Ainge were lampooned by local and national media, which almost unanimously called for their dismissals. And just when season that was supposed to be dedicated to the late Red Auerbach couldn't seem to get much worse, another Celtic legend, the man Magic Johnson once called "the greatest back court defender of all time," Dennis Johnson, passed away suddenly at the age of 52. It was the lowest of the low for the team synonymous with good luck, and for all of the fans that suffered alongside them. Then, a few unlucky ping pong ball bounces later, everything changed. Realizing he wasn't going to get either of the stars he wanted in the draft, Danny Ainge acted quickly, trading first for Ray Allen, one of the best shooters in league history. Then, without giving up his prized young point guard, Rajon Rondo, he traded for future NBA Hall of Fame megastar, Kevin Garnett. Overnight the Celtics were back to being relevant. The media dubbed the trio of stars headlining for the Celtics "The Big Three," and since then, the Celtics have exploded to the best record in the NBA, and the best Celtics' start since the last time a "Big Three" was in Boston. But while the Celtics' hot start is obviously the toast of the town in Boston right now, especially in lieu of the Patriots' recent collapse, it's hard not to wonder about the Celtics' actual chances come playoff time. In order to find this out, I decided to search the blogosphere. In my travels, I came across two posts that address the chances for the Celtics to win a championship. The first, on I've Made a Huge Tiny Mistake, is a post called "The Western Conference is a Tad Better Than Its Eastern Brethren." The poster discusses the current and future superiority of the Western Conference in the NBA. In my response I mostly agree with his post, choosing only to elaborate more specifically on how the Celtics stack up against the West. The second post I found, addresses whether the Celtics will be able to handle the rigors of the second half of their season. The post, by Andy Miller on Bleacher Report, is entitled, "Boston Celtics: Can They Survive the Second Half?" In my response to his post, I also agree with most of Miller's observations, and choose only to dispute his suggestion of the Celtics' need to earn the number one seed in the East. My responses to the comments can be found by clicking on the aforementioned links, but for your convenience I have also included them below.

I've Made a Huge Tiny Mistake: "The Western Conference is a Tad Better Than Its Easter Brethren"

I agree with you that the parity in the West shows its current superiority as a conference. Look no further than the Mark Stein’s NBA Power Rankings, and you can see that 8 of his top 10 teams in the league are Western Conference teams. John Hollinger’s Power Rankings are a little less Western biased, but I have trouble accepting them, because he stubbornly uses a formula so complicated Einstein might struggle to grasp it. Still, I wonder how the two dominant teams in the East, Detroit and Boston, would stack up against the West. Detroit is obviously the more experienced of the two, having won the Championship in 2004, while the trio leading Boston has a combined zero Finals appearance. That being said, I feel like this year Boston may have the better pieces to make it through the East (it’s hard to argue against three perennial superstars in the playoffs after all). Once they get to the Finals, however, it’s a different story. As if the West weren’t already strong enough, the recent flurry of trades has only made it stronger. I would like nothing more than to see the Celtics fight their way through the East and win a Championship, so that all Boston fans can forget about the Patriots. But, assuming the Celtics prove to be the best of the east and make it to the NBA Finals, I wonder how they will handle one of the Western teams with a dominant big man, teams such as Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, or Los Angeles. It seems, from watching the Celtics play, that unless Kendrick Perkins can somehow stay out of foul trouble, they really have no one with the size to match up. Kevin Garnett is obviously a great defensive player, all time great even, and while he could probably stay with Dirk Nowitzki, or maybe Tim Duncan (with whom he has not had historical success), I have a hard time picturing him handling someone as strong as Shaquille O’Neal, Amare Stoudemire or Andrew Bynum. You may recall the game earlier this season, when Dwight Howard pushed Garnett all over the floor, and Garnett was helpless to do much more than watch Howard dunk time and time again. I’m not saying that the Celtics can’t beat a team from the West. After watching the Super Bowl, I’ll assume anything is possible. Moreover, given the absolute dogfight that’s sure to ensue in the Western Conference playoffs, the Celtics might even have a small advantage going in to the Finals. Still, the Celtics certainly will have their work cut out for them against any of the elite Western Conference teams. And if they are truly the best of the East, then that means the rest of the East has an even tougher road ahead.

Bleacher Report: "Boston Celtics: Can They Survive the Second Half?"

If by trading the future, you mean trading away another ten years of mediocrity (assuming Al Jefferson continues to be Zach Randolph 2.0 and doesn't develop any sort of good low post defense), then yes the Celtics have mortgaged a lot for the current roster. With that said, it's impossible for the Celtics to have much regret. The Celtics are as good, if not better than most of us could have imagined before this season started, and there is obviously a new buzz and atmosphere surrounding this team not seen since the original Big Three of Bird, Parish and McHale donned Celtic green. Will they make it to the Championship? Maybe. But they'll have to go through a Detroit team that is just as good as they are, and either an Orlando team that presents obvious problems (Dwight Howard) for the Celtics, or a Cleveland team that LeBron James seems to will to win night in and night out. And that's not even addressing the Western Conference team they would face in the Finals. Because in order to get there, most of your observations will need to prove true. Foremost they need some sort of veteran point guard. While Eddie House is a nice player, and provides scoring spark off the bench, I really can't stand to see him handle the point went Rajon Rondo goes out. The Celtics need to bring in a veteran point guard like Sam Cassel or Jason Williams (I can't believe I'm calling "White Chocolate" a veteran point guard now, by the way). Kyle Lowry, as another responder already stated, is even younger (in NBA years) than Rondo, which means he is likely not the answer. After Danny (hopefully) finds a back up for Rondo, I believe the next two important things they need to do are stay healthy, which means limiting the Big Trio's minutes to under 38 per game, and keeping Brian "Veal" Scalabrine off the floor. I don't know how much I can stress the need to keep Scal off the floor. He is flat out terrible, and as long as Leon Powe, Glen Davis, Kendrick Perkins, James Posey and Kevin Garnett still have air in their lungs, Scal should never, repeat never, step on the parquet. The final point you make, which I have to dispute, is that the Celtics' need to capture the number one seed. Being the number one would definitely be beneficial, but I feel the risks outweigh the benefits. Sure, they'll get four games at home against Detroit instead of three, but as the two meetings between the teams this season have already shown, the Celtics can just as easily win in the Palace as the Pistons can win in the Garden. So assuming they don't blow their ten game lead over Orlando, the only team the Celtics may not have home court advantage against is the Pistons. And the idea of them playing in the Palace does not worry me. What does worry me, however, is the thought of them making a big push for the top seed, and wearing out Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the process. I'm sure both players will give everything they have come playoff time, but two things you can't change are age and injuries, and as of right now neither is on those players' side. Therefore, unless the Celtics plan to unleash the Paul Pierce show, and fizzle out in the Conference finals ala 2002, it's in their best interest to keep the Big Trio healthy until playoff time.